01:10 - Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets 2-9
- over 9 @ 1.77
04:05 - Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics 4-6
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ 1.83
04:05 - Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres 3-5
- Atlanta Braves @ 1.91
33% con -123
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12 comments:
Hola setec, gracias tambien a ti por tu análisis.
Lo que dices es en parte correcto.
Por ejemplo, en abril cuando el balance era verde con un buen margen, algunas veces apostaba en la ganancia de un equipos junto a lo spread, pero es siempre un riesgo porqe si el equipo no gana son dos apuestas erradas con un solo resultado.
Lo voy a hacer si y cuando el balance va a ser con un margen de seguridad. Ahora, con el balance de mayo esto no es posible porque es un riesgo demasiado grande.
Es posible tambien unir una apuesta en el under/over con la apuesta sobre el equipo ganador, como he hecho algunos dias atrás en el partido de Philadelphia, pero en general voy a apostar en el under/over solo cuando estoy bastante seguro.
De todas formas, gracias a ti y a inzaghi por vuestros análisis de los picks, son de ayudo.
Hola eduardo, quien son los sow?!
Si son los Chicago white Sox, creo que es una buena apuesta porque soy convencido que ganaran (como es el futuro de ganar?) pero no se si sow son Chicago white Sox o no.
Si, además de POR y PARA otro problema es SOY y ESTOY :)
Ahora veo tu combinada en tu blog.
Dontrelle Willis es seguro el mejor pitcher de Florida y tambien Derek Lowe (el pithcer de LAD de manana) es muy bueno.
Pero los dos ultimas veces que Dontrelle Willis ha lanzado (pitched) cuentra LAD ha hecho malamente concedendo 12 runs en 7 innings.
El limite del partido de manana es arreglado a 6.5 (muy bajo) entonces no es asi facil de decir si va a ser un under o un over.
Los ultimos 3 start de Dontrelle Willis son 3 under y los ultimos 3 start de Derek Lowe son 2 over y 1 under.
Dificil entender, seguro es que el limite es muy bajo.
Encontras todas las informaciónes que necesitas en www.MLB.com, es el sitio absolutamente más completo por todo.
otro sitio muy importante:
www.statfox.com/mlb
Desafortunadamente o afortunadamente, tambien para apostar, sobre de todo en los deportes americanos, es importante conocer el ingles para disfrutar todas las informaciónes y las estadisticas que acompañano estos deportes.
Tienes que girar un poco en el sitio y encontras todo.
Entretanto CIN-NYM 5 runs en primeros dos inning.
No, en espanol no se ninguna pagina asì llena de informaciónes y estadisticas.
no tengo PS2 y tampoco PS1 :)
pero si, creo que es un buen método para aprender reglas y cosas.
yo tengo subscripción en MLB.tv y veo los partidos.
algunos años atrás jugaba a baseball en un equipo muy débil pero era divertido y he aprendido lo que se de baseball.
ahora lo que se es que voy a la cama :)
buenas noches y suerte por todo y para todos.
Hola setec.
Si, es verdad que el mal comienzo del mes ha condicionado los pronosticos, porque tengo que considerar el balance real y esto condiciona mis pronosticos, sobre de todo en el numero de picks que indico diariamente, no en el tipo de apuestas.
Por ejemplo, ayer eran 3 pronosticos en teoria "seguros" o casi (solo Atlanta era un poco en equilibrio) y no eran 3 pronosticos locos para recuperar.
La derrota de Boston era inesperada y fue sorprendente para mi y no solo para mi.
Cada día intento de elegir pronosticos de confianza, aunque parece que no existe nada asì seguro en el baseball.
Lo que dices es correcto respecto al numero de picks que indico.
Si el balance de mayo sería bueno y verde apostaría en un numero mayor de picks cada día, pero ahora si aposto, por ejemplo, en 5 picks y no van bien el riesgo es de generar un -80% en una manera rapida e casi no recuperable.
Es verdad que ahora es todo rojo y que la tendencia parece ser de un final del mes en rojo, pero yo conservo el deseo de terminar en verde y de no matar en pocos días la caja inicial.
Intento siempre de traer el balance en verde y no puedo olvidar lo que es el balance, porque es el balance real.
Espero de tener éxito en esto o por lo menos de limitar los daños.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets 2-9
By the time Kris Benson had thrown his final pitch, the Mets had scored enough to eliminate all semblance of suspense from the evening's engagement with the Reds and any chance that a save opportunity would develop.
Neither save nor save opportunity occurred in their 9-2 victory. But there was an assist, one so good, so handsomely executed that Magic Johnson or Steve Nash or even Meadowlark Lemon would have been proud to add it to his resume.
It came from Mike Cameron, the Mets right fielder, nee center fielder. It came in the sixth inning when the outcome of Reds at Mets still was an issue. And, in a way, it came from out of the past, when outfield arms still were an integral part of the game.
Cameron, in his 26th career game as a starting right fielder, threw out Felipe Lopez at the plate to end the inning and defuse what became the last serious thrust of the Reds' offense. If you're scoring at home, the out at home went 9-2, numerical phrasing that would be repeated before the evening was complete.
Actually, it was 9-9-2. Ken Griffey Jr. had hit a low line drive to right with Lopez on third base, one out and one run, the Reds' second, already in. Cameron moved forward and with footwork he had borrowed from Ichiro, made a catch and throw as if he'd been in right as long as the Mets bullpen.
One out, one short sprint, one long throw, one bounce, one tag, one man cut down at the plate. One big play.
If something had misfired on the play, the score would have been Mets 4, Reds 3. And who can say what would have happened then? As it was, the Mets fled the field, scored three times in the bottom of the inning, twice more in the seventh, achieved nine more outs and went home happy.
It was an altogether happy evening for a team that had begun it still smarting from its weekend disappointment against the Cardinals. Benson gained his first victory and a round of applause usually reserved for a pitcher who throws more innings -- he worked 7 2/3 -- and surrenders fewer runs.
Cliff Floyd had prompted memories of Darryl Strawberry with a rocket home run to the second level in right in the first inning. And every player in the Mets starting lineup had at least one hit.
But the play of the night was Cameron's. It didn't turn the game, it prevented the game from turning in an unfavorable direction. And it seemingly re-energized the Mets' offense, as a blocked shot or blocked kick does in those other games. It was like a booster shot of excitement.
"A throw or a real good play can do that for a team. I've seen it happen," Willie Randolph said. "He made a good play because Junior hit that on a line. He really didn't have time to set himself."
"But the way he [Griffey] hooked it almost forced me to get into throwing position just so I could make the catch," Cameron said. "I watched Ichiro move his feet fast on plays like that. I did what he does."
So this right field thing isn't so bad after all. Cameron's getting comfortable with it. Hey, it's a shorter commute than going to center. He gets to chat with fans, look into the eyes of the summoned Mets relievers (at home) and when he's in Wrigley Field, as he was last week, he is exposed to all sorts of new and hyphenated insults. It expands the vocabulary.
Of course, Cameron would take center field back if it were offered. Why just yesterday he told Randolph he'd be willing to go back if and when the manager ever sees fit to rest Everyday Carlos Beltran. He's the only Met to start all 39.
But right field is now home for Cameron, and some might say he plays it better than any Met plays any position. As Randolph said in Spring Training "You can win Gold Gloves in right, too."
Not all of Cameron's contributions were defensive. He was responsible for one of the 13 hits the Mets amassed against losing pitcher Paul Wilson (1-5) and his two successors. And he provided his teammates something to talk about the last three innings when the inevitability of winning sunk in.
Piazza said he had no time to admire the throw and the play at the plate, so he'd have to see it replayed. But he knew Cameron had made "a pretty great throw -- one bounce easy to handle." And he knew enough to be thankful the runner was a middle infielder and not Brian Jordan or, worse, gigantic Adam Dunn.
It was a happy night for Piazza too. He was retired in his first two at-bats and was appoaching a turnoff on the dreaded Interstate, a May 16 indignity for a .315 career hitter. He was hitless in 18 at-bats -- equalling the longest dry spell of his Mets tenure -- when he doubled in the sixth. He singled in the seventh and showered as a .216 hitter.
Jose Reyes, David Wright and Kaz Matsui also had two hits each; Matsui and Doug Mientkiewicz drove in two runs each. And the Mets scored three times on sacrifice flies which delighted the man who shares his name with the offensive scheme Run, Run Randolph. The Mets had scored more runs than in all but two of their previous 38 games and only by virtue of a home run.
The hit Randolph embraced most was the leadoff triple by Reyes in the first. "It set everything up," the manager said.
Even Benson contributed a run-scoring single in the second. It pleased him, but not so much as his first victory since last summer. He allowed four hits and two walks and struck out eight. He struggled somewhat through the first four innings, throwing 70 pitches. But he threw only 42 more.
"The longer I pitch, the better I feel," he said. "My first game, 4 2/3 felt like 9 2/3. This felt good. I'm encouraged."
Though he had played no role in the Mets' losses to the Reds in the first three games of the season, Benson was pleased to participate in the extraction of revenge. "That was the attitude right from the beginning, get a little redemption," he said.
Floyd said the Mets had a sense of urgency because of their unfulfilling weekend against the Cardinals. But he hadn't forgotten 0-3. "It's all a part of what we are," he said. "I don't know if it made us better tonight. But I know we're better than we were then. That's enough."
Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics 4-6
The Red Sox were no strangers to the basepaths of McAfee Coliseum Monday night. Unfortunately, the majority of those runners never crossed home, and a night full of lost opportunities resulted in the Sox suffering a 6-4 loss to the A's in the first of a three-game series.
The only thing more common on this night than a stranded Boston runner was a Boston hitter muttering in disgust on his way back to the dugout.
The fact the Sox had more men left on base (13) than hits (12) indicated what kind of frustrating night this was. On the other side of the field, the A's were just relieved to finally get a win, snapping a season-long eight-game losing streak.
"I think we're all just shaking our heads thinking this should not have happened," said Sox center fielder Johnny Damon. "They were bound to get a victory. They plugged away, they did what they had to, got out of some tough jams. You have to tip your hat to those guys."
Despite the plethora of missed opportunities by the Sox, they were still in this one down to the very end.
But the A's rallied against Sox relievers Mike Myers and Mike Timlin in the eighth to snap a 4-4 tie and that proved to the difference.
Lefty specialist Myers surrendered singles to left-handed batters Eric Chavez and Erubiel Durazo to open the inning. It wasn't as if Myers didn't make his pitches. The A's just found some holes. In fact, Myers broke Durazo's bat in three pieces, only to have the ball deflect off his hand and his glove, leading to an infield hit.
"Yeah, it's frustrating," said Myers, who took the loss. "It was a fastball in. I thought it was in good enough. I got a broken bat. He hit it to the right spot. It put Timlin in a tough situation."
With runners on second and third and one out, the Sox opted to walk Scott Hatteberg. The move didn't pan out, as rookie Matt Watson struck a two-run single through the second-base hole, into right field.
Bronson Arroyo turned in a decent outing for the Sox (seven innings, six hits, four runs), who fell to 1-3 on the six-game road trip.
"Bronson has been solid for us, we couldn't help him on some tough plays out there," said Damon. "He's still pitching like our ace."
Things started well enough for the Sox. A's starter Kirk Saarloos helped spark a Boston rally in the top of the second by walking Kevin Youkilis and hitting Bill Mueller, loading the bases with two outs for Mark Bellhorn. The second baseman delivered, smacking a two-run single up the middle to give the Sox a 2-0 lead. However, coming through with men on base was not a recurring theme for Boston on this night.
In the fourth, the Sox loaded the bases with nobody out and didn't score.
First Bellhorn struck out, then Damon. Edgar Renteria flew out to center, and the chance was gone.
"Yeah, we definitely did not take advantage of what was out there," Damon said. "We struck out a few too many times with men in scoring position, me included. You have to tip your hat. I felt like I missed those pitches by a good foot and they were right down the middle. He did a good job of getting out of some tough spots, but there's no way we should have come out with a loss."
Arroyo cruised most of the night, but had a rough fifth inning. With the bases loaded and one out, Mark Kotsay roped a three-run triple to center, giving the A's their first lead. Jason Kendall made it 4-2 with a fielder's choice grounder that Renteria, playing shallow, bobbled.
The A's sent nine batters to the plate and Arroyo avoided being removed from the game by retiring Ginter on a flyout to center to end the inning.
"Well, I think he's human," said Sox manager Terry Francona. "He's been so good. He nicked their No. 9 hitter there, right in the middle of the inning, it didn't help. I will say he gathered himself. You know how we feel about trying to put crooked numbers up, it gives you a heck of a chance to win, and then they did that to us and we couldn't overcome it."
Oakland went to the bullpen in the seventh, with right-hander Keiichi Yabu -- originally slated to start on Wednesday -- replacing Saarloos. The Sox gave Yabu a rude greeting, with Bellhorn leading off with a double to right, followed by a walk to Damon and a single by Renteria. David Ortiz took advantage of that opportunity, belting a two-run double off the wall in left-center to tie the game.
That opened up yet another big chance. With runners on second and third and nobody out, the Sox seemed primed to go in front. On most nights, they would have. But once again, they couldn't cash in. Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek struck out and Youkilis grounded to short.
There would be another opportunity for the Sox in the eighth as Mueller led off with a single and Damon drew a one-out walk. Did Francona think about having Bellhorn -- who batted before Damon and struck out -- try to bunt Mueller to second?
"I didn't," Francona said. "Bell had swung the bat pretty good."
Yabu dug down, though, striking out Renteria and getting Ortiz on a grounder to first.
This most annoying of nights for the Sox wouldn't have proper closure without another tantalizing chance, this one against A's closer Octavio Dotel. Trot Nixon smacked a one-out single. And with the Sox down to their last out, they appeared to have a monumental break. Pinch-hitter Kevin Millar hit a tapper to second and reached when Dotel, covering first, somehow didn't touch the bag. But the break wasn't something the Sox could capitalize on, as Mueller lofted a routine flyout to left to end it.
"We got ourselves in good positions," said Francona. "We just couldn't get one big hit at one key time to have a big inning, or to be able to get ourselves a lead. I thought we did a great job to get ourselves in those positions. We just couldn't do anything with it."
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres 3-5
This wasn't going to be another of those nights that the Braves bullpen provided magic and masked the reality that another of their starting pitchers had made another early exit.
There were signs that it might be possible, like it had been two days earlier. But Chris Reitsma struggled through one of his worst outings of the season and the Braves suffered a 5-3 loss to the Padres at PETCO Park on Monday night. It marked just the third time this season that they lost a game that they were leading after seven innings.
Yet more troubling than dropping to 3-4 through the first seven games of their 12-game road trip, was the realization that John Thomson could be lost for a significant amount of time. The right-hander was forced to exit in the fifth inning with a flexor tendon strain in his right middle finger. His status will be better determined when he visits a specialist in Atlanta on Tuesday or Wednesday.
With Thomson's injury on his mind, Braves manager Bobby Cox watched Padres pinch-hitter Mark Sweeney loft an eighth-inning sacrifice fly off Reitsma that scored Damian Jackson with the game-winning run.
Finally, the Braves bullpen, which had provided strong relief in place of Mike Hampton, who exited Saturday's start in the third inning with tightness in his left forearm, had cracked. But during the past three injury-riddled days, the relief corps has totaled 15 1/3 innings.
"That's our job," said Reitsma, who has seen his ERA jump from 1.08 to 4.26 in his past three appearances. "We've got enough arms down there. Physically, I feel fine. It's just a matter of getting through this little rough spot."
Brian Giles began the eighth with a broken-bat single to right, advanced to third on a Phil Nevin single and scored on a Ramon Hernandez RBI single. A Sean Burroughs bunt single loaded the bases again and marked the fourth straight single Reitsma allowed before recording an out. Two batters later, Sweeney lofted the game-winner into left field.
"There's no excuse," Reitsma said. "You deal with your perfectly-placed bunts and your broken bat every once in a while. I just didn't make great pitches tonight. I've got to make better pitches. I take full responsibility."
Thomson, who allowed just one run and three hits, had a 3-1 lead when he suffered the injury with one out in the fifth inning. His exit forced Adam Bernero to make another impromptu appearance, like he had in place of Hampton.
Giles began the sixth with a triple and scored one batter later on a Nevin single. John Foster tossed a scoreless seventh to set the stage for Reitsma to make his fifth appearance in the past seven days, owning a 3-2 lead.
"We've been in that bullpen a lot," said Cox, whose mind was obviously on Thomson's uncertain status.
Adam LaRoche, who had two doubles and a single, was one of the few Braves who had success against Padres starter Tim Stauffer, who was making just his second Major League appearance. The 22-year-old right-hander allowed three earned runs and seven hits in seven innings.
"I thought he threw super," Cox said of the young hurler. "I really liked him. He changes speeds, has confidence, and good mound presence. He's got all the pitches. He pitched real good."
Johnny Estrada's first-inning, two-out, two-run double got things started for the Braves against Stauffer. LaRoche, who is hitting . 429 (9-for-21) on the road trip, scored on that double and again in the third inning on an Andruw Jones RBI single.
But from there Stauffer hung tough and managed to retire nine of the final 10 batters he faced. LaRoche's two-out double in the fifth inning provided the Braves their final baserunner of the evening.
Hola de nuevo setec.
Como siempre lo que dices es correcto y tienes razon cuando dices que es igual de "facil" acertar una cuota de 1.70 que una de 2.40 en general y que cualquier equipo puede ganar cualquier partido, esto es el divertido y lo que hace dificil apostar en la MLB.
Un cosa pero, la diferencia entre 52% y 56.5% no es un diferencia sin sentido, es una diferencia importante.
Respecto a las cuotas, es posible intentar de apostar con cuotas mejores y es lo que hago con los spread o cuando estoy bastante seguro con pronosticos "over the line". La media de las cuotas es, mas o menos, la misma de abril. Seguro, puedo intentar de elevar un poco la media de las cuotas en los picks, pero es un riesgo.
Yo creo que el problema principal ahora es la porcentaje de aciertos, pero hago tesoro de todos vuestros comentarios y análisis y intento de mejorar en todo.
Si hoy o en los próximo día encontro algo que me da confianza con cuota un poco mas alta lo voy a elegir.
Gracias todavía por tus comentarios y ayudo en el intento de mejorar.
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